Friday, April 29, 2016

The road thus far

Hello readers and investors. This post is mainly directed to my investors and those who bought the stocks I have recommended. Of course those who had met me have gotten slightly varying tips based on the individuals, but mainly the stocks comes from the 2016 posts of this blog.

Despite the slight correction these few days, I believe the profit till date is rather substantial, and this is quite a large difference from my prediction - whereby the market will do a slow climb from the bottom starting mid-end 2016. Clearly the market have rebounded quite strongly off the lows and I would say I was rather lucky to be able to get research done before that time period. The prices are shown all in their respective posts so if anyone would like to gauge the returns, feel free to do your own comparisons - namely OCBC, DBS, EMR and recently STI ETF & SHENG SIONG.

Regarding EMR, I understand that due to the lack of capital and understanding of foreign markets, many did not participate in it, so I would leave that out here. Prior to investments, I had always advised on my time horizon and perspective, and not to follow me blindly. Take for example, should someone with a time horizon of 1-2 months maximum bought OCBC and DBS shares the same time as I do, I believe the next couple of months has seen their shares dropping another 5-6%, which would have been realized losses for them. However, for those with similar appetite like mine, the movements would have suited perfectly for the DCA plan. 

While personally my profits are nothing much since my capital is still small, I am extremely glad to have helped someone earn an amount equivalent to an COE (about?) with the capital of ~250k. The large trust of investing over 200k into shares based on my recommendations are worth much more to me than any monetary gains (I don't get a cut of it anyway), and because I feel only those who understand where I am coming from will have the ability to do it. The idea of my investing style is more towards avoiding risk than to seek profit. My only promise to investors is only that they will be richer 10 years down the road with my help vs fixed deposits. Since my holding period is indefinite, I have never and probably will not ever give advise on when to sell, so if they actually want to realize that mentioned COE, it is up to the individual.

I have always liked to maintain full honesty and transparency, so frankly speaking, I did not expect the jump in prices, nor your profits or mine. I would be happy if the prices didn't drop over 20% since I bought it, and that they continue paying dividends - that's it, I believe that's what I told everyone as well. Therefore, should prices maintain the way they are right now, of course its normal if the 'climb' i spoke about didn't happen, since... it already jumped up. Not considering dividends, current gains have already far exceeded the intended returns of 8% (annually+dividends) .Whether there be another crisis or not is still uncertain, given the general gloom about the economy, but should prices continue rising, then yeah go for more holidays and stuff, but if not, treat it as an opportunity to earn another COE.

There will probably not be any new picks given the adequately priced market right now, even more so if prices continue to rise. I am beginning to stray away from the Singapore market given its extremely inefficient workings, since it is often traded and very subjective to price manipulations - save for the few blue chips. However I will still continue to monitor the few large caps companies and will be ready to grab them when the chance presents itself.

In the meantime, I will be monitoring income-yielding securities, such as high dividend-blue chip stocks, REITs, defensive stocks and others. I am also not accepting funds for management in the meantime since I don't really know where to place them with current market conditions, so there will mostly be action only if the next crisis happens. Having said that, should any current or new investors have funds that want to be put to use, you can still contact me and I can try to figure something out - less lucrative opportunities are still opportunities!

Cheers!





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